January 2026 Real Estate MARKET UPDATE

BY: D. MICHAEL BURKE, Mich Kanigsberg, HUNTER D. HABIB, & Shawn Flinders

As we enter January 2026, full season is officially underway in Southwest Florida. Buyers are back in town, showing activity is increasing, and inventory is beginning to tighten compared to where we ended 2025. This report recaps the 2025 real estate market, outlines current conditions, and explains what these trends mean as we move deeper into season.

Active Listings: Inventory Pulls Back

Current active listings stand at 18,873, marking a decrease from December 2025 and signaling that seasonal demand is starting to absorb available inventory.

Inventory trend over time:

• October 2024: 15,256

• November 2024: 15,745

• December 2024: 19,288

• January 2025: 20,168

• February 2025: 22,184

• May 2025: 24,688

• June 2025: 20,974

• September 2025: 17,529

• October 2025: 16,911

• December 2025: 19,694

• January 2026: 18,873

After peaking mid-2025, inventory has stabilized and is now easing as full-season demand ramps up.

Pricing Adjustments Continue

There were 1,176 price decreases in the past seven days, reinforcing that buyers remain price-conscious. Homes that are priced correctly and show well are getting activity. The rest are being adjusted.

Supply & Market Pace

• Lee County: 7.3 months of inventory

• Collier County: 8.2 months of inventory

While still leaning slightly buyer-friendly, both counties saw modest improvement from late 2025.

Days on Market:

• Lee County: 93 days

• Collier County: 95 days

This decrease in days on market is an early sign that seasonal buyers are engaging more seriously.

2025 Market Recap: The Big Picture

Despite higher rates and elevated inventory for much of the year, the Southwest Florida market remained resilient.

• Total homes sold in 2025: 30,655

• Total homes sold in 2024: 30,171

Sales volume increased year over year, showing that demand never left — it simply became more selective.

Key themes from 2025:

• Inventory rose, giving buyers more choices

• Price growth flattened and normalized

• Buyers became more strategic and patient

• Well-priced homes continued to sell

Mortgage Minute — Provided by Shawn Flinders of Guild Mortgage

What the 2026 market could bring?

Could lower mortgage rates be in store this year? It’s possible, but analysts say not to expect major changes.

The National Association of Realtors predicts 2026 could bring a 14% jump in home sales. One big driver for that? Lower rates.

The Association predicts mortgage rates will average in the mid-6% range. Industry sources like Realtor.com and Redfin expect rates to hover in the low-to-mid 6% range, and Fannie Mae economists see rates trending slightly below that level.

While a rate reduction could bring down a monthly payment, high home prices and insurance costs are still hefty expenses. It’s been said before, but rates aren’t the only thing that matters.

In good news, housing inventory could be on the rise — at least compared to recent lows. That said, inventory is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon, and outcomes will vary by local market.

Bottom line: run the numbers and get pre-approved if you’re serious about buying. Your full financial picture matters.

For more information on how market changes may impact your home-buying goals, reach out and let’s get started.

Shawn Flinders
Sales Manager | NMLS #628471
1222 SE 47th St., Suite 204
Cape Coral, FL 33904
M: 239-385-2240 FL
Company NMLS #3274
Equal Housing Opportunity

What Full Season Means for Sellers

January through March is when Southwest Florida sees the most buyer activity. More people in town means more showings — but it also means more listings.

If you’re thinking about selling this season, the sooner you list, the better. Once inventory rises further, competition increases and leverage shifts.

Bottom Line

The market entering 2026 is balanced, active, and opportunity-driven. Buyers have options, sellers need strategy, and timing matters more than ever.

If you want a custom breakdown for your neighborhood or help planning your next move, I’m here when you’re ready.