September 2025 Real Estate MARKET UPDATE

BY: D. MICHAEL BURKE, Mich Kanigsberg, & HUNTER D. HABIB

Inventory Keeps Falling… Finally a Break for Sellers

As of September 1, 2025, active listings across Southwest Florida have dropped again—from 18,036 in August to 17,529 now.

Here’s the trendline since the seasonal high in May:

• May 2025: 24,688

• June: 20,974

• August: 18,036

• September: 17,529

That’s roughly a 29% drop from May to September:
$(24,688–17,529)/24,688\approx 0.29$.

Good news: inventory is finally heading downward, though the market is still heavy.

Price Cuts, Market Duration, Inventory Supply

• 931 listings had price reductions in the past 7 days.

• Months of supply:

  • Lee County: 7.1 months

  • Collier County: 7.4 months
    (Still well above the 5–6 months that indicate a balanced market.)

• Average days on market:

  • Lee County: 89 days

  • Collier County: 110 days

Listings are taking 3 to 4 months to move, especially in Collier. Buyers are still running the show.

Federal Reserve & J. Powell’s Summit Remarks

At last week’s Jackson Hole Economic Summit, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that labor-market risks now outweigh inflation concerns. His tone suggested that rate cuts are likely ahead—a shift in messaging, even if the Fed hasn’t yet acted. The Wall Street Journal CBS News

That rhetoric had an immediate effect: mortgage rates dropped to year-to-date lows, with the 30-year rate sinking to about 6.52%. HousingWire

But don’t fool yourself—mortgage rates are more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield and spreads, not the Fed’s overnight rate. Powell’s comments triggered a drop in spreads, not a direct rate cut. Barron’sInvestopedia

What It Means for You

Buyers
Still in the driver’s seat, but the gap is narrowing. If you’re ready, now’s the time. Rates are easing, but not a dramatic plunge yet. Expect more modest improvement.

Sellers
Inventory is finally easing up—but it’s still elevated. If your listing is priced right and staged well, you’ve got a fighting chance. Aggressive marketing and smart pricing still matter.

Investors
Nascent rate relief and lower inventory could shift dynamics soon. Keep one eye on demand and the other on economic updates—there could be opportunities ahead.

September Snapshot

Bottom Line

Yes, inventory is starting to shrink—and that’s a positive sign.

Yes, mortgage rates are easing—thanks to Powell shifting tone on labor market risks.

But we’re not near the clear yet. This remains a buyer’s market, with sellers still needing to adapt and price competitively.