July 2025 Real Estate MARKET UPDATE

BY: D. MICHAEL BURKE, Mich Kanigsberg, & HUNTER D. HABIB

As we step into the second half of 2025, Southwest Florida’s real estate market is showing some surprising turns — and not all of them are doom and gloom. While headlines may be painting a bleak picture for certain pockets like Cape Coral, zooming out gives us a more balanced (and even opportunistic) view of where things stand across the region.

🔻 Active Listings Drop Again

The total number of active listings across Southwest Florida has dropped dramatically compared to last month — sitting at 20,551, down from 20,974 in June and a significant shift from 24,688 in May. This is the second month in a row we’ve seen a decline in inventory, hinting at a market that’s beginning to correct itself from the oversupply we saw building throughout late 2024 and early 2025.

Here’s the trend at a glance:

• Oct 2024: 15,256

• Nov 2024: 15,745

• Dec 2024: 19,288

• Jan 2025: 20,168

• Feb 2025: 22,184

• May 2025: 24,688

• June 2025: 20,974

• July 2025: 20,551

The dramatic inventory increase earlier this year may have spooked some sellers and investors, but the latest numbers show a meaningful correction that could rebalance supply and demand.

📉 Price Decreases & Inventory Levels

In just the last 7 days, 1,521 homes across the region have had price reductions. This continued pattern of adjustment is actually helping reset buyer expectations and encouraging negotiations that weren’t happening six months ago.

• Months of Inventory:

  • Lee County: 7.6 months

  • Collier County: 8.1 months
    That’s a noticeable improvement from previous months and shows inventory is beginning to move — albeit slowly.

• Days on Market:

  • Lee County: 63 days

  • Collier County: 72 days
    While DOM is creeping up, this is expected in a transitional market. Homes that are priced right and marketed well are still selling — and quickly.

🌪️ Cape Coral’s Cautionary Tale — With a Silver Lining

A recent article from The Wall Street Journal labeled Cape Coral “the worst housing market in America”, citing sharp price declines, overbuilding, surging insurance premiums, and a flood of inventory. The piece outlines how home prices in Cape Coral-Fort Myers have dropped 11% over the last two years, with over 50% of sellers cutting prices. Foreclosures are ticking up, and builders are walking away from unfinished projects.

💡 Here’s the Real Story (And Why It’s Not All Bad)

1. Cape Coral is returning to reality — not collapsing.
The pandemic boom created false pricing expectations. That’s correcting now, and frankly, it needed to. Home values are still up significantly compared to 2019. So, while there’s been a dip from the peak, we’re far from a true collapse.

2. The investor purge is good for long-term health.
Short-term rental speculators and amateur investors overpriced and overcrowded the market. Their exit makes room for primary residents and responsible buyers — the kind of folks who build stable neighborhoods.

3. It’s a buyer’s market with serious upside.
If you’ve been waiting for the right moment to buy in Cape Coral or greater Lee County, this is it. Sellers are negotiable, inventory is available, and interest rates — while not at rock bottom — are no longer climbing aggressively. Plus, the lifestyle here is still unmatched: waterfront living, Gulf access, sunshine, and no state income tax.

🧭 My Take as a Local Expert

I’m not here to sugarcoat things — this market has shifted. But I’m also not buying the national media’s panic spin. This is a market correction, not a crash. There are real opportunities out there for savvy buyers and strategic sellers. Cape Coral may be down right now, but long-term? I wouldn’t bet against it.

If you want the real story—not just headlines—give me a call. I’ll show you what’s really happening on the ground.